Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59d8…19b6
other · 252 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$34 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 229
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage160d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 251 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $3 −$1 -24%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$18
politics 24% −$6
sports 23% −$9
crypto 8% −$5
economics 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 49m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $12 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 14h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $10 15h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $10 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $1 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $1 29h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $9 29h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $9 35h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $2 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 74¢ $3 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 76 -1.1% -10.6% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 171 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 251 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 943 history records