Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x59d7…e03c other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$12
politics 22% −$3
tech 7% −$1
sports 6% −$47
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -5.3% -14.3% 12% 6% -9.9%
all 101 -5.3% -14.3% 12% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 6% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 6% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage90d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $89 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $317 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $451 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $144 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $447 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $309 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 12h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 16h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $89 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $21 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $31 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.39 · official $166.39 (match) · 269 history records