Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59d3…c92f sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$37
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.6%
all 21 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 0% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $468 −$4 -1%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $19 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $418 −$17 -4%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$1 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $255 +$5 +2%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $70 +$5 +7%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $255 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $180 −$2 -1%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $297 −$3 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $320 −$19 -6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $345 $0 -0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $88 +$2 +2%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $170 $0 -0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $126 −$2 -2%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $6 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 92¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 92¢ $46 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 92¢ $23 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 92¢ $35 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $66 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $132 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $19 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $84 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? SELL Yes $19 3h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $19 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $468 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 76¢ $377 14h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL No 29¢ $20 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $390 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 52¢ $0 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 52¢ $257 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $255 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $0 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $37 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $2 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $2 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $33 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $70 15h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY No 30¢ $21 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 20¢ $24 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $28 18h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL No 27¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records