Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59d2…0091 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 88% −$11
politics 9% $0
other 3% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 16 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage638d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 28 $36 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by March 31? May 06 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $11,240 −$11 -0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Jan 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $27 +$3 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 24 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Sep 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 27 $16 $0 +2%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Oct 05 $185 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 05 $174 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 03 $272 $0 +0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Oct 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $383 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 02 $224 $0 +0%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Oct 01 $206 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Oct 01 $256 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $36 52d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $29 147d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $11,229 147d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $11,240 147d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 204d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 204d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 246d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 83¢ $12 246d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 74¢ $11 263d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 271d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 277d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 460d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $16 548d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $16 615d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL No 49¢ $49 638d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 51¢ $51 638d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House SELL No 71¢ $53 638d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House SELL Yes 28¢ $21 638d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ SELL No 99¢ $99 638d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ SELL Yes $1 638d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.70 · official $35.70 (match) · 54 history records