Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59d1…b527 crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-5%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%50W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$85
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$12
sports 30% −$68
weather 23% −$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.9% -1.5% 36% 36% -23.4%
≤30d 86 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 33% -15.7%
≤90d 86 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 33% -15.7%
all 86 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 33% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 33% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 17% -23.8%
15% -26.7% 15% -31.1%
20% -33.8% 15% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses50 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage9d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$21 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$41 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$31 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$12 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$14 +259%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$42 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$5 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $79 −$79 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $14 +$11 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $47 +$33 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $49 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $54 +$42 +78%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Norbert Gombos vs Jan Choinski Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.82 · official $27.83 (match) · 435 history records