Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x59d0…a4f0 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$505 (+5%) realized +$500 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$71
14 days+$280
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$545
world 18% +$13
sports 17% +$255
politics 7% +$62
tech 3% −$300
economics 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +40.0% +26.7% 86% 86% -7.0%
≤30d 21 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 43% -3.5%
≤90d 21 -12.0% -20.3% 48% 43% -3.5%
all 38 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 32% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 32% -3.6%
10% -44.0% 26% -12.8%
15% -49.5% 21% -21.2%
20% -54.4% 13% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$64 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$1,066
Realized+$500
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)38 / 50
History coverage601d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $900 $881 −$19 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $14 $49 +$35 (+247%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-30%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$85 +170%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $503 +$100 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $503 +$148 +29%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 −$432 -43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $349 +$3 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $303 +$138 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$26 -17%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$26 -17%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jul 02 $89 −$89 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 02 $1,598 +$102 +6%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Apr 12 $773 +$824 +107%
Will Trump save TikTok in first week? Jan 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $573 +$50 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Jan 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 16 $26 −$26 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jan 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Jan 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 16 $27 −$27 -100%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 16 $300 +$150 +50%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $50 +$39 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 36¢ $50 19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 SELL 81¢ $115 34h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $908 44h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 70¢ $101 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $651 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $578 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Tunisia win on BUY 3¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $303 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw BUY 20¢ $20 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL 82¢ $352 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $303 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 80¢ $349 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 43¢ $27 10d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $51 12d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $11 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $145 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $128 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $128 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $154 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,066.06 · official $1,066.06 (match) · 103 history records