trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -31.5% | -38.1% | 25% | 25% | -37.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 33% | 33% | -35.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -14.5% | -22.6% | 33% | 33% | -33.0% |
| all | 25 | -38.2% | -44.1% | 32% | 24% | -35.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -44.1% | 24% | -35.3% |
| 10% | -49.4% | 20% | -41.5% |
| 15% | -54.3% | 20% | -47.2% |
| 20% | -58.8% | 20% | -52.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 24¢ | $40 | $48 | +$8 (+19%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 20¢ | $24 | $39 | +$16 (+67%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $28 | $22 | −$6 (-22%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $25 | $20 | −$5 (-19%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $8 | $5 | −$3 (-40%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $11 | −$3 | -23% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $115 | −$74 | -65% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $5 | −$2 | -51% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 29 | $89 | +$11 | +12% |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Jun 04 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | Jun 04 | $12 | +$19 | +162% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | May 28 | $10 | +$13 | +134% |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during events with Rutte? | Apr 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Mar 25 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen | Mar 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 13? | Mar 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar | Mar 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid | Mar 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? | Feb 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | Jan 06 | $402 | +$21 | +5% |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-30? | Dec 31 | $101 | +$101 | +100% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Dec 24 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? | Dec 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 19? | Oct 19 | $500 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 18? | Oct 18 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 16? | Oct 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 15? | Oct 14 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Sep 30 | $0 | $0 | +64% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 30 | $5 | +$6 | +107% |