Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59cf…11d2 politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,674 (-20%) realized −$1,674 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$563
14 days−$450
30 days−$1,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$1,714
crypto 0% −$32
other 0% −$7
world 0% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 56% 33% -22.6%
≤30d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 29% -28.5%
≤90d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 29% -28.5%
all 14 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 29% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 29% -28.5%
10% -36.4% 14% -35.3%
15% -42.5% 0% -41.6%
20% -48.2% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$242 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage67d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$32 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $88 +$6 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $3,703 −$531 -14%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $527 +$176 +33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 04 $361 −$63 -17%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $14 −$9 -67%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 28 $3,547 −$1,292 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $17 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $7 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $6 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $3 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $14 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $7 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 32h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $94 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $44 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $9 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $92 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 14¢ $6 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 14¢ $5 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 25¢ $6 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 28¢ $144 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 23¢ $211 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 23¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records