Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59cb…763c world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$5
other 24% +$7
politics 23% +$7
sports 14% −$8
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 29% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 57 +0.9% -8.8% 32% 5% -9.7%
all 63 +6.9% -3.3% 33% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 10% -9.4%
10% -12.5% 6% -18.1%
15% -21.0% 5% -26.0%
20% -28.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage519d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$6 -20%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +25%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $26 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $60 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $27 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $26 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $29 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $28 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $5 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $22 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $33 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $33 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.70 · official $31.70 (match) · 214 history records