Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x59cb…ac07 crypto 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate96%213W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$128
14 days+$166
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +5.6% -4.4% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 174 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 16% -8.6%
≤90d 223 +2.3% -7.4% 96% 13% -9.0%
all 223 +2.3% -7.4% 96% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 13% -9.0%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$42 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses213 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage34d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $115 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $109 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $124 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $169 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $119 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $89 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $156 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $88 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $74 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $77 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $115 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $104 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $109 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $124 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $169 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $140 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $89 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $123 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $156 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 508 history records