Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
59 0x59ca…b317 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+7%) realized +$83 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$39
other 6% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% -1.9%
≤30d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% -1.9%
≤90d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% -1.9%
all 11 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 64% -1.9%
10% -11.5% 64% -11.2%
15% -20.1% 55% -19.8%
20% -27.9% 36% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$59 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $56 −$4 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $121 +$92 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $159 +$41 +26%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 +$90 +90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$37 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$16 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 36¢ $52 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $56 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $56 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 59¢ $53 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $56 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 56¢ $50 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $52 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $213 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $121 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $159 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $100 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $70 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $61 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $108 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $71 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $24 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.85 · official $152.86 (match) · 26 history records