Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x59c6…0650 crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$525 (+9%) realized +$525 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%77W / 69L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$324
sports 3% +$60
other 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 4 -44.8% -50.0% 25% 25% -23.8%
≤90d 122 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 53% -2.9%
all 146 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -4.5%
10% -24.6% 37% -13.7%
15% -31.9% 27% -22.0%
20% -38.6% 20% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$525
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses77 / 69
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage573d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $184 +$74 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $86 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 08 $85 −$48 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 08 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET May 08 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 08 $103 −$75 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 08 $84 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET May 08 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 08 $69 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 08 $54 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 08 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 08 $33 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 08 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $3 +$13 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 08 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $103 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 07 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 07 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 07 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 07 $104 +$167 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 07 $98 +$33 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 07 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 07 $104 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 07 $110 +$58 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 07 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 06 $167 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 06 $104 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 06 $87 +$64 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 06 $49 +$38 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 06 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 26 $60 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 26 $45 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 26 $149 −$141 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $52 +$98 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 26 $62 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 26 $109 +$75 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 26 $72 +$39 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 26 $66 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 26 $51 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $258 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $184 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $62 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $69 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $86 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $51 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $36 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $15 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $35 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $35 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $21 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $28 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $104 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $84 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $86 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $69 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $69 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $54 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $55 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $48 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $48 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $33 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $31 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records