Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59c6…8332 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,734 (+13%) realized +$10,818 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$831per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$9,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days+$4,565
14 days+$4,024
30 days+$3,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$5,159
tech 10% +$5,172
world 9% −$1,179
sports 7% +$843
finance 4% −$186
crypto 0% +$49
politics 0% −$18
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 45% +13.6%
≤30d 28 -16.9% -24.9% 39% 39% +0.9%
≤90d 46 +8.1% -2.2% 35% 33% +4.2%
all 56 +9.4% -1.0% 36% 34% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 34% +3.1%
10% -10.5% 30% -6.7%
15% -19.1% 29% -15.8%
20% -27.1% 21% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,827) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,174 vs −$377 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$9,994
Realized+$10,818
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions40
Markets (closed)56 / 98
History coverage168d
Avg bet$831
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4,500 $4,437 −$63 (-1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $500 $511 +$11 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 92¢ $200 $234 +$34 (+17%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $150 $222 +$72 (+48%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-8%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 57¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 60¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 80¢ 91¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,228 −$276 -12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$44 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 −$39 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $707 −$69 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $375 −$63 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$14 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,027 +$632 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,544 +$1,390 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4,590 +$4,181 +91%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 09 $413 −$400 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$19 +188%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,914 +$2,048 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $1,846 −$1,814 -98%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $3,078 −$1,233 -40%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,818 −$1,800 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3,093 +$1,087 +35%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $5,241 +$136 +3%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,039 −$825 -79%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $500 −$56 -11%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $956 −$137 -14%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $43 −$19 -43%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 23 $1,000 +$1,938 +194%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 23 $250 +$2,798 +1121%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $8,599 −$2,433 -28%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 30 $1,057 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 27 $1,100 −$175 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 27 $458 −$100 -22%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $600 −$454 -76%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $5,414 +$6,862 +127%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $1,827 −$819 -45%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $646 −$499 -77%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $953 −$100 -10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $498 +$332 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 10 $2,955 −$186 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $305 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $508 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,952 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,228 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $145 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $113 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,009 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 86¢ $200 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $202 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $455 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $85 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $89 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 51¢ $227 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $5,659 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5,027 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $2,000 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 29¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,994.01 · official $9,993.12 (match) · 232 history records