Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59c6…e6d4 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-25%) realized −$325 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$280
crypto 22% −$42
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 2 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
all 52 -36.7% -42.8% 27% 17% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 17% -32.5%
10% -48.2% 8% -39.0%
15% -53.2% 4% -44.9%
20% -57.8% 4% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$325
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Open positions10
Markets (closed)52 / 62
History coverage192d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $2 −$1 -54%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 23 $11 −$4 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 15? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025? Dec 16 $472 −$177 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Dec 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 15? Dec 15 $53 −$48 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 12? Dec 12 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 12? Dec 12 $1 $0 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? Dec 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 10 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $50 −$34 -69%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 9? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 09 $6 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 9? Dec 08 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 8? Dec 08 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 8? Dec 08 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in December 2025? Dec 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 8? Dec 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? Dec 07 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 7? Dec 07 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in December 2025? Dec 06 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in December 2025? Dec 06 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in December 2025? Dec 06 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 06 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 06 $21 −$14 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 06 $18 −$14 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $80 +$8 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 165d
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 165d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 167d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $2 170d
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem SELL Yes 1¢ $0 173d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 180d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 12¢ $2 180d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 181d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 181d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 181d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 181d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.21 · official $36.21 (match) · 186 history records