Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59c4…b517
politics · 59 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
+$40,422 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$94,623 · open −$54,202
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$710,159
Realized+$94,623
Unrealized−$54,202
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage692d
Avg bet$33,734
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22,855
14 days+$68,733
30 days+$86,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 87¢ $764,361 $710,159 −$54,202 (-7%)
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Yes $299 $0 −$299 (-100%)
US military action against Iran before July? No 59¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $547,376 +$22,855 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $375,535 +$45,878 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $12,000 +$57 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $178,622 +$16,759 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $23,785 +$1,227 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $500 +$95 +19%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Feb 04 $27,203 +$2,344 +9%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $400 +$36 +9%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Jan 07 $129 +$19 +15%
Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025? Jan 07 $339 +$4 +1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 07 $1,887 +$49 +3%
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025? Jan 07 $3,824 +$69 +2%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Jan 07 $24,592 +$875 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $9,762 +$663 +7%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $44 −$34 -77%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $334 −$324 -97%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Dec 17 $2,579 −$299 -12%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Dec 03 $1,000 +$66 +7%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 25 $15 +$13 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Nov 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Nov 22 $59 −$57 -96%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 22 $946 −$921 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? Nov 07 $585 +$13 +2%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Nov 06 $958 +$28 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $900 +$58 +6%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 26 $593 +$490 +83%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Dec 11 $300 +$193 +64%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 04 $189 +$487 +257%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 23 $100 +$89 +89%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Nov 22 $5,095 −$809 -16%
Solana all time high in Q4? Nov 17 $1,171 +$4,655 +398%
Will Donald Trump say "McDonald's" during his North Carolina speech? Oct 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "China" 10 or more times during his North Caroli Oct 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on August 30? Sep 03 $1,887 +$651 +34%
Will Donald Trump say "World War 3" during Michigan town hall? Aug 30 $187 +$277 +148%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan Aug 30 $141 +$156 +111%
Pavel Durov released in August? Aug 29 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Trump say "Tampon" at his rally? Aug 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" at his rally? Aug 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump say "Secret Service" at his rally? Aug 18 $30 +$90 +300%
Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during Friday speec Aug 17 $45 +$95 +212%
Iran military response by Friday? Aug 17 $401 +$22 +5%
Solana above $150 on August 16? Aug 16 $280 +$159 +57%
Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? Aug 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview? Aug 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Tampon" during Elon interview? Aug 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$32,763
other 2% +$1,660
politics 1% +$352
crypto 1% +$5,281
sports 0% +$353
tech 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15,559 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9,200 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14,953 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5,996 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41,400 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6,071 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6,820 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $72,254 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,880 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $157 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $610 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9,400 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $351 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $545 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $470 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $470 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $188 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,350 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $313 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,256 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,567 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 6 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 33% -2.6%
≤90d 6 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 33% -2.6%
all 58 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 34% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 34% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 28% -11.9%
15% -23.6% 22% -20.4%
20% -31.1% 19% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710,159.12 · official $710,159.12 (match) · 695 history records