Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59c4…2d1f sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$256 (-24%) realized −$255 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$62
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$261
crypto 6% +$9
other 5% +$1
world 2% −$6
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -42.9%
≤90d 15 -13.1% -21.4% 73% 47% -36.9%
all 21 -18.3% -26.1% 71% 38% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -35.0%
10% -33.2% 24% -41.2%
15% -39.6% 10% -46.9%
20% -45.5% 0% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$64 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$255
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 −$90 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $94 +$27 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $95 −$94 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $90 +$20 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $80 +$36 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $73 −$72 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 13 $47 +$18 +38%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 29 $13 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 29 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $16 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 29 $44 +$8 +19%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? Feb 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 08 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $144 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $90 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $94 17d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $95 22d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 81¢ $90 29d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $80 35d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Aurora 54¢ $73 43d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $47 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 23¢ $120 58d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $35 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? BUY No 83¢ $44 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $12 93d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 101d
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $13 105d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 115d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $14 122d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 135d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 135d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No $1 149d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 84¢ $8 155d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 159d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 169d
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition BUY Yes 100¢ $18 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.98 · official $141.98 (match) · 38 history records