Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59c3…20c8
politics · 108 markets active 3h ago
2.5score
+$856 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$858 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,179
Realized+$858
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses25 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
Avg bet$962
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days+$1,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,179 $1,179 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,095 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,255 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $491 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $731 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $1,089 +$1,776 +163%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $3,276 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $611 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $551 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,296 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,325 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Flyers vs. Rangers Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-02-06? Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 27 $129 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$50
other 35% +$1,650
sports 13% −$734
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $714 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $715 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,124 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $799 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $800 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $746 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $747 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $546 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $547 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $739 16d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $740 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $599 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $600 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $730 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $731 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $811 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $598 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +10.8% +0.2% 13% 7% -1.4%
≤90d 66 -9.1% -17.8% 12% 5% -9.2%
all 107 +5.7% -4.4% 23% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 11% -8.8%
10% -13.5% 11% -17.5%
15% -21.9% 9% -25.5%
20% -29.5% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.69 · official $1,178.69 (match) · 298 history records