Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

59 0x59bc…a047 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%15W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days+$66

14 days+$12

30 days+$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+9.0%	-1.3%	67%	67%	-1.7%
≤30d	26	+24.9%	+13.0%	58%	58%	-8.0%
≤90d	26	+24.9%	+13.0%	58%	58%	-8.0%
all	26	+24.9%	+13.0%	58%	58%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.0%	58%	-8.0%
10%	+2.2%	42%	-16.8%
15%	-7.7%	42%	-24.8%
20%	-16.8%	38%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +40% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$27 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.04 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses15 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 28

History coverage12d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$40	-40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$124	+$19	+15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$74	+$16	+22%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$10	+$8	+83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$123	+$13	+10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	Jun 20	$10	+$14	+138%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$89	+$59	+66%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-98%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$63	+$44	+71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$88	−$87	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$74	+$32	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$66	+$12	+19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$7	-67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$75	−$75	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	Jun 15	$5	+$25	+502%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$25	+250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$42	−$25	-61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$13	+$7	+57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$13	−$13	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$53	−$28	-52%
Brazil leading at halftime?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$12	−$6	-46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$16	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	49¢	$60	20m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$142	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$124	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$43	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$47	27h
Argentina leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	93¢	$19	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	28h
Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$64	46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$136	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$123	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	SELL	94¢	$24	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$148	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$13	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$6	3d
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	52¢	$6	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	BUY	39¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$61	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$107	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$15	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	60¢	$9	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	41¢	$10	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records