Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

59 0x59b6…09f2 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$524 (-38%) realized −$525 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-56.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-52.2%	-56.8%	29%	29%	-48.9%
≤30d	21	-52.2%	-56.8%	29%	29%	-48.9%
≤90d	21	-52.2%	-56.8%	29%	29%	-48.9%
all	21	-52.2%	-56.8%	29%	29%	-48.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.8%	29%	-48.9%
10%	-60.9%	24%	-53.8%
15%	-64.7%	19%	-58.2%
20%	-68.1%	19%	-62.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -46% → late -58% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$50 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized−$525

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$143	$144	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	+$11	+11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$46	−$45	-97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	−$9	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$80	−$80	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$49	+97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$101	+$33	+32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$15	+152%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$15	−$15	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$144	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	82¢	$80	43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$20	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	23¢	$15	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.61 · official $143.61 (match) · 31 history records