Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x59b5…4c12 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,776 (+72%) realized +$5,777 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 52L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$943
7 days−$943
14 days−$248
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$5,287
sports 31% −$619
crypto 7% −$289
economics 1% −$64
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -92.4%
≤30d 41 -91.1% -91.9% 5% 5% -20.6%
≤90d 56 -63.1% -66.6% 12% 9% +43.4%
all 61 -58.8% -62.7% 15% 11% +42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 11% +42.4%
10% -66.3% 11% +28.8%
15% -69.5% 10% +16.4%
20% -72.5% 7% +5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt +56% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$56 · ×14.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,777
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 35
History coverage244d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,029 −$942 -92%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$97 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,026 −$1,012 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,029 +$1,052 +35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,049 +$791 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $107 −$63 -59%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $388 −$155 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $136 −$106 -78%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $366 −$360 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $626 +$5,385 +860%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -73%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top global Netflix show this Apr 28 $1 $0 -46%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $87 29m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,029 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 0¢ $26 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $788 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,508 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $318 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $301 9d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $748 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 9d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL No 3¢ $43 16d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY No 25¢ $11 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 7¢ $107 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $76 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $125 22d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $22 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $116 22d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $31 22d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $105 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 94 history records