Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59b5…5ce5 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$15
other 26% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 40% -15.7%
≤30d 20 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 40% -15.7%
≤90d 20 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 40% -15.7%
all 20 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 40% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 40% -15.7%
10% -29.0% 40% -23.8%
15% -35.8% 30% -31.2%
20% -42.1% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+116%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $11 −$8 -68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $12 +$16 +134%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -23%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $13 +$3 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $7 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 17h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $4 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 41¢ $1 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $1 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 45h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 46h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 72¢ $4 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.24 · official $20.24 (match) · 40 history records