Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59b4…0f3a sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%36W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% $0
other 7% +$2
crypto 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 25% 25% -39.5%
≤30d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 25% 25% -39.5%
≤90d 9 -29.0% -35.7% 22% 22% -41.9%
all 87 -16.8% -24.8% 41% 38% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 38% -6.4%
10% -32.0% 37% -15.4%
15% -38.5% 31% -23.6%
20% -44.6% 21% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses36 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)87 / 105
History coverage220d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$3 +238%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $1 −$1 -68%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $3 +$2 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner Jan 25 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $11 −$2 -20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 24 $1 +$1 +122%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $3 +$4 +132%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 23 $2 $0 -8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Jan 23 $2 +$1 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $3 −$1 -41%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Jan 20 $20 −$14 -69%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DRX vs T1 (BO3) Jan 18 $36 +$1 +4%
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $5 −$4 -82%
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jan 18 $11 +$20 +187%
LoL: DN Freecs vs Dplus KIA (BO3) Jan 18 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX - Game 1 Winner Jan 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 15 $1 $0 +43%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -73%
Lakers vs. Jazz Nov 29 $1 $0 +49%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 29 $1 +$1 +96%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 24 $2 $0 -24%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 23 $1 +$1 +122%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Nov 23 $2 +$2 +96%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Nov 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Australia win? Nov 21 $1 $0 -5%
76ers vs. Bucks Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Nov 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 35m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 59m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 59m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 59m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.06 · official $18.01 (match) · 219 history records