Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59b4…0e43 crypto 1438 markets active 15h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate77%1099W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$22
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$33
sports 8% −$3
other 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.5% -11.7% 66% 31% -9.5%
≤30d 1032 -5.4% -14.4% 76% 39% -17.5%
≤90d 1436 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 46% -10.6%
all 1436 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 46% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 46% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 20% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1099 / 337
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1436 / 1438
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1436 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 66¢ $1 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records