Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59af…8721
crypto · 133 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$55 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 57
Open positions19
Markets (closed)114 / 133
History coverage21d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 19 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$13
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Yes 23¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+159%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? No 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +173%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +143%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 06 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +139%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 +$3 +262%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$45
crypto 29% +$8
politics 20% −$6
other 6% −$11
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 24h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 31h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 31h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 31h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 29% -10.8%
≤30d 114 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 114 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 29% -12.9%
all 114 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 29% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 29% -12.9%
10% -35.2% 18% -21.3%
15% -41.4% 17% -28.9%
20% -47.2% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 295 history records