Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ae…a92b world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$5
other 23% $0
politics 22% −$1
sports 10% −$1
economics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.7% -11.0% 60% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 74 +2.9% -6.9% 35% 1% -9.8%
all 85 +2.5% -7.2% 36% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -16.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -24.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage425d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $122 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $3 $0 -14%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $87 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $31 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records