Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ad…0cf2 weather 1128 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-1%) realized −$160 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate73%800W / 303L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$35
14 days+$70
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$220
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 968 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 21% -9.5%
≤90d 1103 -0.2% -9.7% 73% 23% -10.6%
all 1103 -0.2% -9.7% 73% 23% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 23% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 17% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 13% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,608
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses800 / 303
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1103 / 1128
History coverage69d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $170 $174 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $141 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 19? Jun 20 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $76 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $141 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $141 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $113 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $142 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $74 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $29 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $42 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $28 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $170 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $52 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $44 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $143 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $128 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $141 24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $17 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $171 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $124 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $9 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $111 42h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $43 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $76 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,607.86 · official $1,603.97 (match) · 3133 history records