Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59aa…3376 sports 1388 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,424 (-3%) realized −$9,412 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%661W / 704L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$1,840est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$849
14 days+$2,258
30 days−$2,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$5,974
other 11% −$3,259
world 0% +$108
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +30.3% +17.9% 64% 64% +16.1%
≤30d 192 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 46% -14.5%
≤90d 855 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 47% -11.1%
all 1365 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 47% -11.9%
10% -17.8% 43% -20.3%
15% -25.8% 38% -28.0%
20% -33.1% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$188 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$9,412
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses661 / 704
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,840
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1365 / 1388
History coverage138d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $145 $133 −$12 (-8%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 −$1 -1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $148 +$100 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $63 +$94 +149%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $73 +$38 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$41 +89%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $4 $0 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $149 −$3 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$68 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $186 +$85 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $136 −$134 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $210 +$25 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $129 +$80 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $56 +$233 +414%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $587 +$213 +36%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 +$66 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $307 +$116 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 +$103 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $289 −$286 -99%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $43 −$13 -29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$398 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $390 +$259 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$166 +226%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $287 −$283 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$64 +249%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$79 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $252 −$248 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $162 +$74 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $199 +$129 +64%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 +$100 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$211 +207%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$148 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$172 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $145 +$319 +221%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $183 −$181 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $59 +$82 +139%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $259 +$156 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$97 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$276 +324%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$331 +449%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $441 −$60 -14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $106 −$104 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $98 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $97 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $149 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $247 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $148 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Croatia w BUY 27¢ $51 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 41¢ $69 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $73 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $73 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $49 18h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 18h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 55¢ $3 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $4 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 52¢ $46 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 39¢ $63 38h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY 8¢ $35 46h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY 36¢ $61 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $147 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $149 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $69 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $150 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 4¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $186 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 14¢ $30 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Wil BUY 15¢ $34 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $136 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.13 · official $279.13 · 2722 history records