Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59a8…eb4e sports 327 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,225 (+3%) realized +$1,263 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%161W / 162L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$725
7 days+$974
14 days+$1,625
30 days+$1,515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$772
other 5% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +32.0% +19.4% 56% 56% -0.1%
≤30d 149 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 199 +5.1% -4.9% 49% 49% -9.0%
all 323 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 50% -7.6%
10% -16.1% 50% -16.4%
15% -24.2% 50% -24.5%
20% -31.7% 48% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$131 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$1,263
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses161 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions3
Markets (closed)323 / 327
History coverage117d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 85¢ $150 $191 +$41 (+27%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 34¢ $250 $176 −$74 (-30%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $165 $160 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $162 +$100 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $177 +$152 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $152 +$144 +94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$161 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$166 +109%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $162 +$151 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$147 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$403 +784%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $558 −$550 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$151 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$207 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $253 +$159 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$128 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$108 +54%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $203 +$268 +132%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $253 +$191 +75%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$336 +165%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $243 −$240 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 14 $51 +$55 +109%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $152 +$157 +103%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $117 −$115 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 +$163 +107%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$229 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $202 −$112 -56%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $254 −$250 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$100 +197%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $152 +$157 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $101 16m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 17m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $48 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $312 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $262 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $162 8h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $167 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $254 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $152 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $177 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 18h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $142 19h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $296 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $263 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $203 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will France win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $154 29h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $177 31h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 31h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $162 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $300 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.23 · official $667.77 · 546 history records