Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59a7…4a13 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-19%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$50
crypto 12% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 25% -13.1%
≤30d 10 -19.9% -27.5% 20% 20% -29.7%
≤90d 10 -19.9% -27.5% 20% 20% -29.7%
all 10 -19.9% -27.5% 20% 20% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 20% -29.7%
10% -34.4% 20% -36.4%
15% -40.8% 10% -42.5%
20% -46.6% 10% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $72 +$19 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $81 −$21 -26%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$22 +412%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$15 -78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 17m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 17¢ $44 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 2d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.85 · official $64.87 · 34 history records