Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59a0…2b45
sports · 64 markets active 3h ago
5.5score
+$66 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$15
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Aliesia Reva 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Under 51¢ 51¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Yes 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Moutet vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Duckworth vs. Damas: Match O/U 22.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals San Diego Padres 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran Donski 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 209.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Magic 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Burrage vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. May 30 $0 $0 +98%
Tagger vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 May 30 $3 +$3 +97%
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $4 +$4 +104%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +93%
Tan vs. Fruhvirtova: Match O/U 21.5 May 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 30 $5 +$6 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 +$5 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P May 30 $7 +$6 +89%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5 May 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $890 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $6 +$6 +103%
Duckworth vs. Damas: Match O/U 22.5 May 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 13 $6 +$6 +103%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 13 $3 +$10 +317%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Moutet vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5 May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 06 $4 +$4 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $5 +$4 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 May 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 May 06 $5 +$5 +96%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 209.5 May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5 Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5 Apr 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 25 $4 +$3 +90%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 25 $6 +$2 +32%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 25 $4 +$4 +104%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $4 +$4 +101%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$73
politics 32% −$2
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 27h
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey BUY Aliesia Reva 51¢ $4 2d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 3d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 4d
Burrage vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran BUY Donski 48¢ $4 7d
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran BUY Donski 48¢ $2 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $3 7d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 8d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 8d
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 11d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $6 11d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 50¢ $0 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $1 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $5 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $6 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Griekspoor 47¢ $5 17d
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 17d
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 17d
Tagger vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 19d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 19d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -80.4% -82.3% 0% 0% -82.2%
≤30d 32 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 41% -11.4%
≤90d 61 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% +27.2%
all 62 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 44% -7.4%
10% -26.2% 44% -16.3%
15% -33.3% 39% -24.4%
20% -39.9% 39% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.93 · official $14.73 (match) · 155 history records