trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +164.7% | +139.5% | 100% | 100% | +162.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +36.0% | +23.0% | 64% | 64% | +26.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +25.1% | +13.2% | 67% | 67% | +15.5% |
| all | 15 | +25.1% | +13.2% | 67% | 67% | +15.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +13.2% | 67% | +15.5% |
| 10% | +2.4% | 53% | +4.5% |
| 15% | -7.5% | 40% | -5.6% |
| 20% | -16.6% | 27% | -14.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $500 | $937 | +$438 (+88%) |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $1,000 | $833 | −$167 (-17%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $500 | $642 | +$142 (+28%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $500 | $556 | +$56 (+11%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $500 | $458 | −$42 (-8%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $500 | $435 | −$65 (-13%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $500 | $361 | −$139 (-28%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $249 | +$220 | +88% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 17 | $1,000 | +$3,832 | +383% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1,000 | +$224 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $506 | −$500 | -99% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,262 | +$2,209 | +98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $1,384 | −$1,384 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 27 | $1,000 | +$1,382 | +138% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 23 | $1,287 | +$268 | +21% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | May 20 | $879 | +$397 | +45% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 15 | $1,000 | +$288 | +29% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 28 | $2,000 | +$255 | +13% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Apr 26 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 26 | $1,000 | +$396 | +40% |