Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x599e…70bc other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$13
other 10% +$5
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +5.5% -4.5% 23% 8% -6.4%
≤90d 27 +4.2% -5.8% 19% 7% -8.1%
all 39 +2.7% -7.1% 21% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage603d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $9 +$6 +73%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $234 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,224 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,874 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $964 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 12h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 37h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 40h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.77 · official $37.77 (match) · 265 history records