Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x599c…d493 crypto 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 745d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$580 (-3%) realized −$580 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%234W / 212L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$583
other 4% −$1
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 40% 13% -9.6%
≤30d 69 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 158 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 4% -9.6%
all 446 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 15% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 15% -12.2%
10% -20.5% 7% -20.6%
15% -28.2% 3% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

745d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses234 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)446 / 451
History coverage745d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 17 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -30%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Sto Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $294 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 31h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 31h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 31h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1 31h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $100 31h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 99¢ $99 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.91 · official $6.91 (match) · 1136 history records