Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x599c…b312 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
world 30% −$4
politics 10% −$3
sports 9% +$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.2%
all 45 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage285d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $27 −$3 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Dec 06 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Nov 04 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 04 $2 −$1 -70%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $28 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $32 +$1 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $8 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records