Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x599b…4114 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-8%) realized −$114 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$150
other 8% −$8
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.3% -20.6% 40% 35% -18.6%
≤30d 57 -12.3% -20.6% 40% 35% -18.6%
≤90d 57 -12.3% -20.6% 40% 35% -18.6%
all 57 -12.3% -20.6% 40% 35% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 35% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 33% -26.4%
15% -35.2% 25% -33.5%
20% -41.5% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions16
Markets (closed)57 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Navarro 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 67¢ 81¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 78¢ 80¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 57¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Navarro 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 62¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 58¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Solary 57¢ 55¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Solary 46¢ 42¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 61¢ 53¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Top Esports Challenger 58¢ 12¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-80%)
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) DXA Esports 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $7 +$5 +67%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $51 −$3 -5%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$2 +30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +43%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $7 +$5 +70%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $37 +$24 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $7 +$5 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$17 +84%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$7 +97%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$2 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 −$16 -52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $30 −$16 -53%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$5 -25%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$6 -28%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -50%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $56 +$13 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ $6 30m
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $6 31m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $12 33m
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 39m
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 40m
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 41m
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 42m
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $7 43m
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro BUY Navarro 51¢ $7 44m
Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro BUY Navarro 51¢ $7 45m
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ $48 47m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 51¢ $6 1h
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 1h
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 1h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $11 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 67¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 59¢ $7 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $7 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ $51 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $7 2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $7 2h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 46¢ $7 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $7 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $9 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $9 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $7 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.93 · official $144.93 (match) · 128 history records