Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5999…fcd4 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$618 (-25%) realized −$639 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$305
sports 30% −$515
crypto 28% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 25% -34.6%
≤30d 16 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 25% -34.6%
≤90d 16 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 25% -34.6%
all 16 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 25% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 25% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 19% -40.9%
15% -39.7% 19% -46.6%
20% -45.6% 12% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$99 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $250 $271 +$21 (+9%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$99 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $615 −$615 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$63 -87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $606 −$270 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $514 +$243 +47%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $336 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.20 · official $272.23 (match) · 54 history records