Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5995…53b3 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,456 (-4%) realized −$1,493 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%63W / 56L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$135
14 days−$188
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,020
other 1% −$477
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.9% -34.7% 33% 33% -93.8%
≤30d 22 +10.8% +0.2% 55% 55% -9.4%
≤90d 57 -16.5% -24.4% 44% 44% -33.0%
all 119 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 52% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 52% -13.7%
10% -22.8% 50% -22.0%
15% -30.2% 39% -29.5%
20% -37.1% 34% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$237 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,493
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses63 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage171d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Julia Riera 28¢ 42¢ $73 $109 +$37 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5 +$5 +116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $133 −$131 -99%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $250 −$247 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $105 +$146 +139%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $56 +$48 +86%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $93 +$111 +119%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace Jun 05 $78 +$15 +20%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $96 +$83 +86%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $96 −$95 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $121 −$120 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $100 +$73 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $99 +$163 +165%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $89 −$88 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $110 +$179 +163%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $81 +$29 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $50 +$31 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Little Rock: Blaise Bicknell vs Bernard Tomic May 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $3 +$4 +172%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $38 −$38 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $83 −$81 -98%
Parma: Susan Bandecchi vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet May 14 $127 +$89 +70%
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaume Munar May 14 $99 +$28 +29%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $92 −$90 -99%
Bordeaux: Aleksandar Vukic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 14 $142 +$48 +34%
Bengaluru 2: Kriish Tyagi vs Hamish Stewart May 14 $59 +$83 +139%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez May 13 $91 −$89 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $91 −$90 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce May 11 $43 +$49 +114%
San Luis Potosi: Facundo Mena vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 04 $242 −$242 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 04 $242 −$242 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 04 $504 −$504 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 03 $258 −$236 -92%
Credit One Charleston Open: McCartney Kessler vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 03 $250 −$241 -96%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Apr 03 $406 +$193 +48%
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 03 $305 +$214 +70%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Thiago Agustin Tiran Apr 03 $500 −$463 -92%
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Apr 03 $500 +$207 +41%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $496 +$480 +97%
Copa Colsanitas: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Julia Riera Apr 03 $277 +$386 +139%
Austin: Bianca Andreescu vs Lanlana Tararudee Apr 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $217 −$217 -100%
Kalinina vs. Zidansek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 03 $208 −$208 -100%
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 160.5 Apr 03 $250 −$250 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Baez vs Droguet Apr 03 $420 −$420 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Apr 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Julia Riera 30¢ $11 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Julia Riera 28¢ $63 1h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 41¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 45¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $133 6d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $250 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $105 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $56 7d
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu BUY Andre Ilagan 45¢ $93 18d
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace SELL Cadence Brace 100¢ $94 18d
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace BUY Cadence Brace 83¢ $78 18d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller BUY Marvin Moeller 65¢ $101 18d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 100¢ $179 18d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 53¢ $96 19d
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava BUY Guy Den Ouden 66¢ $96 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 63¢ $121 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $174 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $261 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Matteo Arnaldi 37¢ $99 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 57¢ $100 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 44¢ $89 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi SELL Francisco Comesana 100¢ $288 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Francisco Comesana 37¢ $110 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu SELL Maria Sakkari 99¢ $110 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu BUY Maria Sakkari 72¢ $81 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio SELL Camila Osorio 99¢ $81 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 61¢ $50 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 60¢ $51 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.41 · official $109.41 (match) · 241 history records