Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5995…da14 crypto 1020 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-1%) realized −$33 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate74%749W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$23
14 days+$19
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$422
other 4% +$35
world 4% +$247
politics 1% −$18
culture 1% −$28
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$4
sports 0% −$11
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.4% +1.7% 78% 67% +2.8%
≤30d 49 +4.2% -5.8% 78% 59% -3.6%
≤90d 350 +2.5% -7.2% 76% 41% -11.3%
all 1009 -2.0% -11.3% 74% 43% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 43% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 25% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 14% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses749 / 260
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1009 / 1020
History coverage125d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1009 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 59¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 30¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $15 +$12 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 55¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.77 · official $93.35 (match) · 3244 history records