Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5992…e670 other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$27
other 25% −$26
sports 17% −$13
crypto 7% −$8
finance 5% −$12
world 4% −$3
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$3
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.8% -10.2% 1% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 148 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 159 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 137
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage99d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 96¢ 94¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $249 −$3 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $223 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $191 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $84 $0 -1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $49 −$3 -5%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $61 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $176 −$2 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $305 −$3 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $306 −$3 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 96¢ $41 48m
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 1h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 22h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 30h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 43h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $62 43h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.69 · official $40.69 (match) · 727 history records