Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5992…99e4 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-3%) realized −$194 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$775
7 days−$775
14 days−$631
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$379
other 11% −$105
sports 4% −$54
tech 2% −$62
economics 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -31.4% -37.9% 29% 26% -29.1%
≤30d 106 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 30% -25.1%
≤90d 106 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 30% -25.1%
all 106 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 30% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 30% -25.1%
10% -35.3% 29% -32.3%
15% -41.6% 26% -38.8%
20% -47.3% 24% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 72
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage18d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $78 $147 +$69 (+88%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $200 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $152 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $245 +$102 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $122 +$41 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $165 −$132 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$5 -14%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$35 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$20 -48%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $71 −$15 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $97 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 10h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 36¢ $14 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.47 · official $163.51 (match) · 397 history records