Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5990…fc5a crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,438 (+111%) realized +$1,281 · open +$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$72
other 38% +$855
sports 20% +$628
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 60% +81.6%
≤30d 30 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 60% +81.6%
≤90d 30 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 60% +81.6%
all 30 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 60% +81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 60% +81.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 47% +64.2%
15% -9.9% 37% +48.4%
20% -18.7% 30% +33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$23 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$1,281
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $17 $174 +$157 (+899%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $254 +$386 +152%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$522 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $150 +$228 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $70 +$84 +120%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 +$197 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$25 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $34 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $37 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $41 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $254 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 3h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $150 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.31 · official $174.31 (match) · 90 history records