Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x598e…7336 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,449 (+9%) realized +$18,168 · open +$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$2,703per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$955est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$10,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,457
7 days+$5,457
14 days+$5,457
30 days−$8,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$1,438
other 37% +$23,954
world 7% −$907
politics 4% +$2,580
crypto 3% +$478
finance 1% −$1,013
tech 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 50% +45.5%
≤30d 13 -49.0% -53.8% 23% 23% -36.0%
≤90d 69 -2.9% -12.2% 42% 35% -0.2%
all 71 -3.4% -12.6% 42% 35% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 35% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 31% -8.0%
15% -28.6% 25% -16.9%
20% -35.6% 23% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$4,161) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,178 vs −$1,051 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$10,157
Realized+$18,168
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$955
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage105d
Avg bet$2,703
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 60¢ $6,100 $6,050 −$50 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 46¢ 50¢ $3,776 $4,107 +$331 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,935 +$6,497 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,347 −$2,347 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 26 $363 −$338 -93%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,952 −$272 -9%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 12? May 23 $168 −$168 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 23 $987 −$366 -37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $965 −$965 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 23 $1,467 −$1,467 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 23 $7,915 −$7,915 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $635 +$332 +52%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $363 +$250 +69%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1,329 +$407 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $4,240 +$3,760 +89%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 29? May 11 $59 −$59 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 29? May 11 $82 −$82 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? May 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 11 $139 −$139 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 11 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 11 $303 −$303 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? May 11 $899 −$899 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 11 $525 −$525 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $862 −$370 -43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 11 $11,168 +$7,531 +67%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 05 $4,606 +$2,524 +55%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29? May 04 $841 +$442 +53%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 03 $2,717 +$35 +1%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 28 $910 +$20 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $9,630 −$21 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 27 $1,268 −$425 -34%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $9,086 +$59 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3AM ET Apr 26 $581 −$581 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $2,253 −$1,770 -79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $5,889 +$610 +10%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $7,906 +$4,285 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,334 −$850 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $780 −$780 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3PM ET Apr 20 $418 −$418 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $4,161 +$2,843 +68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $9,258 +$3,134 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $10,461 +$3,382 +32%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $1,271 −$1,271 -100%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 16 $202 +$27 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3,000 +$6,790 +226%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 15 $72 +$27 +38%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 15 $1,322 +$232 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $9,100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $6,171 8m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $552 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $3,856 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $114 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,099 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $6,452 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,483 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $919 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $809 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $179 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $248 19d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 22d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $221 22d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $965 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 65¢ $635 25d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 59¢ $715 35d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $7,200 35d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 40¢ $1,467 36d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 76¢ $15 36d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 76¢ $1,315 36d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 54¢ $82 36d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 56¢ $85 36d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 31¢ $11 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,157.11 · official $10,157.11 (match) · 983 history records