Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x598c…cc0b crypto 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$652 (-11%) realized −$642 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%185W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$497
sports 34% −$342
other 14% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.0% +0.4% 62% 38% -0.5%
≤30d 8 +11.0% +0.4% 62% 38% -0.5%
≤90d 291 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 49% -21.4%
all 291 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 49% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 49% -21.4%
10% -23.3% 34% -28.9%
15% -30.7% 19% -35.8%
20% -37.5% 13% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$642
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses185 / 106
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage82d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 48¢ $138 $128 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $27 +$3 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $348 +$25 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $189 +$26 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $222 −$2 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $9 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $23 −$22 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 15 $22 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $50 36m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $50 43m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 45m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 87¢ $30 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $17 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $7 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $16 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Steve Garcia 69¢ $17 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $373 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $134 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $214 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $215 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $214 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $96 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 17¢ $9 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 18¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.73 · official $127.73 (match) · 1036 history records