Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5984…7e8a other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$9
other 28% −$6
politics 12% +$3
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 8% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 20 -5.2% -14.2% 15% 0% -10.1%
all 80 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 1% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage450d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $78 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $87 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $172 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $98 −$5 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $267 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $7 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $139 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $62 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $2 −$1 -57%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 18 $8 $0 +5%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Connor Hellebuyck win the Hart Trophy? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $30 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $38 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $18 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $85 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $48 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $48 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $77 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $78 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $61 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $25 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $79 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $79 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $87 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $87 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $75 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $71 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $82 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records