Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x5984…76eb sports 1053 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,094 (+2%) realized +$5,078 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%344W / 705L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$2,926est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$814
other 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.7% -13.8% 31% 31% -10.7%
≤30d 234 -14.8% -22.9% 29% 29% -21.4%
≤90d 627 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 33% -8.2%
all 1049 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 33% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 32% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 32% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 32% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$505 vs −$247 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$1,216
Realized+$5,078
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses344 / 705
Est. fees paid−$2,926
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1049 / 1053
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$250
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 34¢ 36¢ $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 32¢ 32¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 31¢ 30¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 33¢ 32¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 20 $264 −$264 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $306 +$630 +206%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $305 +$436 +143%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $307 +$937 +305%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $306 +$745 +243%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $307 −$293 -96%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $306 −$297 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $307 +$888 +290%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $306 +$576 +188%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $306 +$684 +223%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $300 +$470 +156%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$1,055 +344%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $307 −$307 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $306 +$484 +158%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 14 $308 +$182 +59%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $304 +$455 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 +$603 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $256 −$256 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $306 +$528 +172%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $307 −$307 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $306 +$708 +232%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $307 −$307 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $305 +$464 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 34¢ $306 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $306 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 31¢ $306 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $306 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $937 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $742 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Boston Breach 28¢ $303 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 43¢ $59 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $244 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $306 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $305 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Amaru Gaming 15¢ $103 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Amaru Gaming 19¢ $161 9h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 40¢ $8 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 41¢ $102 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $21 22h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $13 22h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $3 22h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $17 22h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $38 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 26¢ $307 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $307 23h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $25 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $307 23h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $1,244 27h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $306 30h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 24¢ $51 30h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 24¢ $18 30h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 24¢ $6 30h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 24¢ $18 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,216.38 · official $1,206.94 (match) · 3500 history records