Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x597f…f297 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$13
crypto 23% −$61
other 13% −$2
politics 6% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 0% -11.0%
all 51 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage331d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $170 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $173 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $86 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $4 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $192 −$12 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $169 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $104 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $159 +$4 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $142 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $165 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $162 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $77 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $76 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $6 −$1 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $90 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $89 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 21 $1,123 −$61 -5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $152 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 24 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jul 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 22 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $78 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $63 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $78 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $78 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $62 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $86 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $86 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $86 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $86 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $86 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $86 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $86 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $68 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $86 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $78 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.06 · official $76.88 (match) · 213 history records