Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x597e…cd70 sports 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,393 (+1%) realized +$5,782 · open −$389
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%153W / 161L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,502est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$487
7 days+$7,116
14 days−$390
30 days+$4,701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$6,434
other 36% +$1,202
world 9% −$1,129
politics 5% +$2,242
tech 3% −$1,849
culture 2% +$222
economics 0% −$12
finance 0% −$1,500
crypto 0% −$464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +58.6% +43.5% 59% 59% +13.8%
≤30d 41 +29.6% +17.2% 56% 56% +0.6%
≤90d 96 +13.5% +2.6% 48% 45% -3.6%
all 314 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 43% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 43% -7.6%
10% -17.8% 39% -16.4%
15% -25.7% 35% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,400) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$866 vs −$789 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$15,186
Realized+$5,782
Unrealized−$389
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses153 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,502
Open positions11
Markets (closed)314 / 325
History coverage620d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4,748 $5,132 +$383 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,500 $2,713 +$213 (+9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2,000 $1,721 −$279 (-14%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $2,000 $1,573 −$427 (-21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $977 −$23 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $868 −$132 (-13%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $585 $488 −$97 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $811 +$791 +98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $327 +$673 +206%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $510 +$1,144 +224%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $647 −$422 -65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,536 +$1,915 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,032 −$4,024 -80%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,012 −$601 -59%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $515 −$238 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,024 +$3,976 +388%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,860 +$1,140 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,215 +$3,915 +177%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7,090 −$4,000 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,007 +$275 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,020 +$2,010 +197%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $307 −$300 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $16,166 −$9,716 -60%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $916 −$700 -76%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1,007 −$877 -87%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,072 +$328 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1,124 −$1,100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $966 −$951 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $1,020 +$680 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3,050 +$3,768 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,554 +$2,022 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4,284 −$3,325 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $502 +$63 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,035 −$1,658 -81%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,027 +$1,580 +78%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $1,019 +$1,759 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,018 +$1,546 +152%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $509 +$711 +140%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4,099 −$3,464 -84%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $520 +$11 +2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,049 +$8,398 +410%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $2,033 −$1,865 -92%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $2,303 +$3,517 +153%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,700 +$2,300 +85%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $3,081 −$1,378 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $608 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,020 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $225 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $647 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $327 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,009 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,014 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,006 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $64 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $348 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,011 47h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $277 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1,012 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $350 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $350 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,513 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,860 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $92 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,186.24 · official $15,190.09 (match) · 1885 history records