Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x597d…b97d sports 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,296 (-11%) realized −$3,288 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%102W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$382est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$156
14 days−$37
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2,031
other 14% −$783
world 13% −$1,077
crypto 1% −$42
politics 1% −$190
weather 0% −$31
economics 0% −$35
tech 0% −$30
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 38% -6.4%
≤30d 76 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 260 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 29% -25.4%
all 321 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 29% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 29% -23.1%
10% -39.3% 28% -30.5%
15% -45.2% 24% -37.2%
20% -50.5% 21% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$55 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized−$3,288
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses102 / 219
Est. fees paid−$382
Open positions2
Markets (closed)321 / 325
History coverage102d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $259 $260 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $280 +$282 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $410 −$84 -21%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $56 +$71 +126%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $61 +$63 +103%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $41 −$30 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $185 +$11 +6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $198 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $327 −$98 -30%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$39 +99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $204 −$100 -49%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $102 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $18 +$99 +533%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $136 −$17 -12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 +$64 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $217 +$118 +54%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $243 +$160 +66%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$41 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $196 +$49 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $134 +$61 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$83 +137%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $149 +$106 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $330 +$138 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $141 +$91 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $134 +$38 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $39 +$34 +88%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$27 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $257 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $163 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $563 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $280 4h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $579 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $86 7h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY Spirit Academy 20¢ $41 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $128 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 43¢ $56 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $56 10h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY VP.Prodigy 11¢ $57 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $56 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $323 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 41¢ $125 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 19¢ $61 26h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $121 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 25¢ $8 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 25¢ $43 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 25¢ $28 32h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 32h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 79¢ $17 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 88¢ $179 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $185 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $185 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $198 35h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $99 36h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $235 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.27 · official $501.27 (match) · 1115 history records