Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x597b…a872 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,577 (+27%) realized +$3,577 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$2,307
other 44% +$1,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤30d 30 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤90d 30 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +14.8%
all 30 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 50% +14.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 40% +3.8%
15% -22.0% 27% -6.2%
20% -29.6% 23% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$660) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$437 vs −$199 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $309 +$33 +11%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $225 +$80 +36%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $135 +$94 +69%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $736 −$456 -62%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $324 −$318 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $660 +$1,269 +192%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $700 +$1,262 +180%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $216 −$178 -82%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $291 −$158 -54%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $390 +$609 +156%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $762 +$1,655 +217%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $463 −$261 -56%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $220 −$204 -93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $710 +$221 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $409 −$113 -28%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $205 −$60 -29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $767 +$191 +25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $604 +$374 +62%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $500 +$100 +20%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $471 −$159 -34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,265 +$166 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $873 +$281 +32%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $346 −$236 -68%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $88 −$48 -55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $295 +$71 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $301 +$150 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $458 −$157 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 41m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 90¢ $309 47m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes $2 48m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes $2 48m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes $1 48m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 80¢ $84 51m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 51m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 51m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 75¢ $159 55m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 56m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 56m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 56m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $116 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $135 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records