Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5979…98b7 weather 627 markets active 4d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$304 (-24%) realized −$304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%147W / 480L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$59
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$337
politics 9% −$10
other 8% −$6
world 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -47.4% -52.4% 13% 6% -50.6%
≤30d 418 -28.7% -35.5% 22% 9% -37.5%
≤90d 627 -28.5% -35.4% 23% 9% -35.1%
all 627 -28.5% -35.4% 23% 9% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.4% 9% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 8% -41.3%
15% -47.2% 8% -47.0%
20% -52.4% 7% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses147 / 480
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)627 / 627
History coverage38d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 627 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -42%
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1448 history records